March 22, 2024
Analysis of commercial remote sensing data collected between 2020-2024 of the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) Lop Nur Nuclear Weapon Test Site revealed indications of preparation for critical nuclear weapons testing, which have not been conducted at Lop Nur in almost 30 years. Since any critical nuclear weapons test would violate the principles of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), any apparent test preparation merits public debate within arms control communities. This presentation details observed indications of nuclear test preparation at Lop Nur, explores possible interpretations of such preparation, and frames future research projects on this topic.
Renny Babiarz, PhD, is Vice President of Analysis and Operations for AllSource Analysis, where he manages and contributes to geospatial intelligence (GEOINT) analysis projects on security, economic, and artificial intelligence (AI) issues. He is also an adjunct faculty member for the Johns Hopkins MS in Geospatial Intelligence Program. Dr. Babiarz has over 25 years of experience researching China’s political and military systems, including over 10 years of experience in the field of GEOINT analysis focusing on Asia and weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Additionally, he worked in public service as a GEOINT analyst for the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency. Dr. Babiarz has co-authored a textbook on geospatial analysis principles and practices titled Geospatial Data, Information, and Intelligence, authored numerous geospatial analysis reports for various AllSource Analysis customers, and authored peer-reviewed academic articles in Comparative Strategy and Naval War College Review. He has a PhD in political science specializing in China's nuclear weapons program (Johns Hopkins University), an MA in Asian Studies specializing in China (University of Hawaii at Manoa), and certificates in Chinese language and GEOINT analysis.