October 18, 2024
Assessing the type of threat that Russia is likely to pose in the aftermath of the war in Ukraine is a critical challenge for the United States and its allies. What will the Russian military look like in the future? Some argue that the Russian military will remain a significant threat – and perhaps become a very different and even more serious one. This argument holds that the Russian military will reconstitute in a relatively short time frame and may reform according to lessons learned during the war in Ukraine. Others argue that the Russian military will pose a far less formidable conventional threat going forward. Not only has the war against Ukraine exposed fundamental weaknesses in the Russian military, the argument goes, but Moscow’s ability to address those weaknesses will be limited by available manpower, sanctions, and export controls.
On October 18, 2024, Dr. Elgin will explore these questions by arguing that the Russian military may indeed attempt to rebuild and reform in the aftermath of the war, but that the fighting force that emerges from these efforts is likely to operate in ways similar to the force that invaded Ukraine in February 2022. Developing a framework to analyze the Russian military’s ability to conduct major reform projects, and examining Russian military reforms throughout history, Elgin argues that substantial changes to Russian armed forces could be announced but are only likely to succeed under very narrow conditions – conditions that are unlikely to materialize. The Russian military is indeed learning and adapting during the war in Ukraine, and Russia is expected to remain a threat. Even so, it is unlikely that its future force will be drastically different in character from the Russian military that exists today.
Dr. Katherine Kjellström Elgin is a Fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA), where she works on U.S. and allied defense and grand strategy, particularly with regards to NATO and Russia.
Prior to joining CSBA, Dr. Elgin served as a DAAD Post-Doctoral Fellow at the Foreign Policy Institute of Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). Dr. Elgin has also held positions at the Brookings Institution and the Long Term Strategy Group in Washington, D.C. In 2018, she served as a visiting fellow at the Institute for Security & Development Policy in Stockholm, Sweden.
Dr. Elgin earned her Ph.D. in Public Affairs (Security Studies) from Princeton University’s School of Public & International Affairs. At Princeton, she served as the director of the Center for International Security Studies’ Strategic Education Initiative, leading the university’s program for educating and mentoring students with an interest in national and international security. In addition to her Ph.D., she holds an A.B. in Politics and an M.A. in Public Affairs from Princeton University. Dr. Elgin speaks French, Russian, and Swedish.